C. Baron, B. Sultan, M. Balme, B. Sarr, S. Traore et al., From GCM grid cell to agricultural plot: scale issues affecting modelling of climate impact, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, vol.12, issue.27, pp.2095-2108, 2005.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2474:TAMAAS>2.0.CO;2

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00122721

M. Bentsen, I. Bethke, J. B. Debernard, T. Iversen, A. Kirkevåg et al., The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M ??? Part 1: Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate, Geoscientific Model Development, vol.6, issue.3, pp.687-720, 2013.
DOI : 10.5194/gmd-6-687-2013

A. Berg, N. De-noblet-ducoudré, B. Sultan, M. Lengaigne, and M. Guimberteau, Projections of climate change impacts on potential C4 crop productivity over tropical regions, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, vol.170, pp.89-102, 2013.
DOI : 10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.12.003

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01496000

M. Biasutti and A. H. Sobel, Delayed Sahel rainfall and global seasonal cycle in a warmer climate, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.451, issue.7182, 2009.
DOI : 10.1029/2009GL041303

A. J. Challinor, T. Wheeler, P. Craufurd, J. Slingo, and D. Grimes, Design and optimisation of a large-area process-based model for annual crops, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, vol.124, issue.1-2, pp.99-120, 2004.
DOI : 10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.01.002

A. J. Challinor, T. Wheeler, P. Craufurd, and J. Slingo, Simulation of the impact of high temperature stress on annual crop yields, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, vol.135, issue.1-4, pp.180-189, 2005.
DOI : 10.1016/j.agrformet.2005.11.015

A. J. Challinor, J. Watson, D. B. Lobell, S. M. Howden, D. R. Smith et al., A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation, Nature Climate Change, vol.112, issue.4, pp.287-291, 2014.
DOI : 10.1007/s10584-012-0428-2

A. J. Challinor, B. Parkes, and J. Ramirez-villegas, Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity, Global Change Biology, vol.20, issue.4, pp.1679-1688, 2015.
DOI : 10.1111/gcb.12496

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01496622

A. J. Challinor, A. Koehler, J. Ramirez-villegas, S. Whitfield, and B. Das, Current warming will reduce yields unless maize breeding and seed systems adapt immediately, Nature Climate Change, vol.11, issue.10, pp.954-958, 2016.
DOI : 10.1023/A:1022872604743

URL : http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n10/pdf/nclimate3061.pdf

P. Chylek, J. Li, M. K. Dubey, M. Wang, and G. Lesins, Observed and model simulated 20th century Arctic temperature variability: Canadian Earth System Model CanESM2, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, vol.11, issue.8, 2011.
DOI : 10.5194/acpd-11-22893-2011

URL : https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-11-22893-2011

E. P. Diaconescu, P. Gachon, J. Scinocca, and R. Laprise, Evaluation of daily precipitation statistics and monsoon onset/retreat over western Sahel in multiple data sets, Climate Dynamics, vol.2, issue.1, pp.1325-1354, 2015.
DOI : 10.1002/wcc.147

M. Dingkuhn, C. Baron, V. Bonnal, F. Maraux, B. Sarr et al., Decision support tools for rainfed crops in the Sahel at the plot and regional scales, in: Decision support tools for smallholder agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa: A practical guide, pp.127-139, 2003.

J. Dufresne, M. Foujols, S. Denvil, A. Caubel, O. Marti et al., Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5, and Vuichard, N.: Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5, pp.2123-2165, 1636.
DOI : 10.1175/2010JCLI3260.1

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00794170

J. Elliott, C. Müller, D. Deryng, J. Chryssanthacopoulos, K. J. Boote et al., The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison: data and modeling protocols for Phase 1 (v1, Geosci. Model Dev, pp.261-277, 2015.

L. D. Estes, H. Beukes, B. A. Bradley, S. R. Debats, M. Oppenheimer et al., Projected climate impacts to South African maize and wheat production in 2055: a comparison of empirical and mechanistic modeling approaches, Global Change Biology, vol.2, issue.Suppl. 9, pp.3762-3774, 2013.
DOI : 10.2307/3236170

L. Garcia-carreras, A. J. Challinor, B. J. Parkes, C. E. Birch, K. J. Nicklin et al., The Impact of Parameterized Convection on the Simulation of Crop Processes, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, vol.54, issue.6, pp.1283-1296, 2015.
DOI : 10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0226.1

E. Gbobaniyi, A. Sarr, M. B. Sylla, I. Diallo, C. Lennard et al., Climatology, annual cycle and interannual variability of precipitation and temperature in CORDEX simulations over West Africa, International Journal of Climatology, vol.64, issue.1, pp.2241-2257, 2014.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-010-0778-2

P. Gerland, A. E. Raftery, H. ?ev?íková, N. Li, D. Gu et al., World population stabilization unlikely this century, Science, vol.9, issue.8, pp.234-237, 2014.
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0096447

URL : http://europepmc.org/articles/pmc4230924?pdf=render

S. M. Griffies, M. Winton, L. J. Donner, L. W. Horowitz, S. M. Downes et al., The GFDL CM3 Coupled Climate Model: Characteristics of the Ocean and Sea Ice Simulations, The GFDL CM3 Coupled Climate Model: Characteristics of the Ocean and Sea Ice Simulations, pp.3520-3544, 2011.
DOI : 10.1175/2011JCLI3964.1

M. G. Grillakis, A. G. Koutroulis, and I. K. Tsanis, Multisegment statistical bias correction of daily GCM precipitation output, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol.12, issue.2006, pp.3150-3162, 2013.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2474:TAMAAS>2.0.CO;2

K. Guan, B. Sultan, M. Biasutti, C. Baron, and D. B. Lobell, Assessing climate adaptation options and uncertainties for cereal systems in West Africa, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, vol.232, pp.291-305, 2017.
DOI : 10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.07.021

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01497212

W. Hazeleger, X. Wang, C. Severijns, S. Stef?-anescu, R. Bintanja et al., EC-Earth V2.2: description and validation of a new seamless earth system prediction model, Climate Dynamics, vol.10, issue.D14, pp.2611-2629, 1228.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1004:ELIV>2.0.CO;2

URL : http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010BAMS2877.1

P. W. Holland and R. E. Welsch, Robust regression using iteratively reweighted least-squares, Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, vol.3, issue.9, pp.813-827, 1977.
DOI : 10.1214/aos/1176342503

T. Iizumi and N. Ramankutty, Changes in yield variability of major crops for 1981???2010 explained by climate change, Environmental Research Letters, vol.11, issue.3, 2016.
DOI : 10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034003

T. Iizumi, M. Yokozawa, G. Sakurai, M. I. Travasso, V. Romanenkov et al., Historical changes in global yields: major cereal and legume crops from 1982 to 2006, Global Ecology and Biogeography, vol.39, issue.3, pp.346-357, 1982.
DOI : 10.1029/2012GL053711

B. Kirtman, S. Power, J. Adedoyin, G. Boer, R. Bojariu et al., Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability, in: book section 11, pp.953-1028, 2013.

J. Knox, T. Hess, A. Daccache, W. , and T. , Climate change impacts on crop productivity in Africa and South Asia, Environmental Research Letters, vol.7, issue.3, pp.1748-9326034032, 2012.
DOI : 10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034032

M. Kouressy, M. Dingkuhn, M. Vaksmann, and A. B. Heinemann, Adaptation to diverse semi-arid environments of sorghum genotypes having different plant type and sensitivity to photoperiod, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, vol.148, issue.3, pp.357-371, 2008.
DOI : 10.1016/j.agrformet.2007.09.009

G. Krinner, N. Viovy, N. De-noblet-ducoudré, J. Ogée, J. Polcher et al., A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere-biosphere system, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, vol.113, issue.D19, 1015.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2665:TROVCI>2.0.CO;2

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00374606

G. Larvor, Prise en main d'un modèle d'agriculture pour le développement d'un nouveau service orienté changement climatique , MS thesis, Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l, 2016.

L. Lassaletta, G. Billen, B. Grizzetti, J. Anglade, and J. Garnier, 50 year trends in nitrogen use efficiency of world cropping systems: the relationship between yield and nitrogen input to cropland, Environmental Research Letters, vol.9, issue.10, pp.1748-9326, 2014.
DOI : 10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/105011

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01194829

A. D. Leakey, Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and the future of C4 crops for food and fuel, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, vol.105, issue.3, pp.2333-2343, 1517.
DOI : 10.1104/pp.123.3.1143

D. B. Lobell and S. Asseng, Comparing estimates of climate change impacts from process-based and statistical crop models, Environmental Research Letters, vol.12, issue.1, 2017.
DOI : 10.1088/1748-9326/aa518a

D. B. Lobell and M. B. Burke, On the use of statistical models to predict crop yield responses to climate change, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, vol.150, issue.11, pp.1443-1452, 2010.
DOI : 10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.07.008

G. A. Meehl, C. Covey, K. E. Taylor, T. Delworth, R. J. Stouffer et al., THE WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel Dataset: A New Era in Climate Change Research, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol.88, issue.9, pp.1383-1394, 2007.
DOI : 10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1383

M. Meinshausen, S. Smith, K. Calvin, J. Daniel, M. Kainuma et al., The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300, Climatic Change, vol.41, issue.7, pp.213-241, 2011.
DOI : 10.1021/es061710t

A. Mishra, J. W. Hansen, M. Dingkuhn, C. Baron, S. B. Traoré et al., Sorghum yield prediction from seasonal rainfall forecasts in Burkina Faso, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, vol.148, issue.11, pp.1798-1814, 2008.
DOI : 10.1016/j.agrformet.2008.06.007

C. Monfreda, N. Ramankutty, and J. A. Foley, Farming the planet: 2. Geographic distribution of crop areas, yields, physiological types, and net primary production in the year 2000, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, vol.90, issue.3, 1022.
DOI : 10.1016/j.agsy.2006.01.008

C. Müller, J. Elliott, J. Chryssanthacopoulos, A. Arneth, J. Balkovic et al., Global gridded crop model evaluation: benchmarking, skills, deficiencies and implications, Geosci. Model Dev, pp.1403-1422, 1403.

G. Nikulin, C. Jones, F. Giorgi, G. Asrar, M. Büchner et al., Precipitation Climatology in an Ensemble of CORDEX-Africa Regional Climate Simulations, Journal of Climate, vol.25, issue.18, pp.6057-6078, 2012.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00375.1

P. Oettli, B. Sultan, C. Baron, and M. Vrac, Are regional climate models relevant for crop yield prediction in West Africa?, Environmental Research Letters, vol.6, issue.1, pp.1748-9326, 2011.
DOI : 10.1088/1748-9326/6/1/014008

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00755374

L. V. Papadimitriou, A. G. Koutroulis, M. G. Grillakis, and I. K. Tsanis, High-end climate change impact on European water availability and stress: exploring the presence of biases, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, vol.12, issue.7, pp.7267-7325, 2015.
DOI : 10.5194/hessd-12-7267-2015

B. Parkes, A. Challinor, and K. Nicklin, Crop failure rates in a geoengineered climate: impact of climate change and marine cloud brightening, Environmental Research Letters, vol.10, issue.8, p.84003, 2015.
DOI : 10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084003

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01257809

B. Parkes, B. Sultan, P. Ciais, W. , and X. , Modelling fertiliser significance in three major crops, European Journal of Agronomy, vol.90, pp.1-11, 2017.
DOI : 10.1016/j.eja.2017.06.012

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01581108

T. Raddatz, C. Reick, W. Knorr, J. Kattge, E. Roeckner et al., Will the tropical land biosphere dominate the climate???carbon cycle feedback during the twenty-first century?, Climate Dynamics, vol.25, issue.18, pp.565-574, 2007.
DOI : 10.1034/j.1600-0889.2003.01450.x

D. K. Ray, N. D. Mueller, P. C. West, and J. A. Foley, Yield Trends Are Insufficient to Double Global Crop Production by 2050, PLoS ONE, vol.438, issue.2, pp.1-8, 2013.
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0066428.s017

U. Rippke, J. Ramirez-villegas, A. Jarvis, S. J. Vermeulen, L. Parker et al., Timescales of transformational climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan African agriculture, Nature Climate Change, vol.6, issue.6, pp.605-609, 2016.
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0066428

J. Rockström and M. Falkenmark, Semiarid Crop Production from a Hydrological Perspective: Gap between Potential and Actual Yields, Critical Reviews in Plant Sciences, vol.19, issue.4, pp.319-346, 2000.
DOI : 10.1080/07352680091139259

L. D. Rotstayn, S. J. Jeffrey, M. A. Collier, S. M. Dravitzki, A. C. Hirst et al., Aerosoland greenhouse gas-induced changes in summer rainfall and circulation in the Australasian region: a study using singleforcing climate simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys, vol.125194, issue.10, pp.6377-6404, 2012.

P. Roudier, B. Sultan, P. Quirion, and A. Berg, The impact of future climate change on West African crop yields: What does the recent literature say?, Global Environmental Change, vol.21, issue.3, pp.1073-1083, 2011.
DOI : 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.04.007

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00715355

B. Sultan, K. Guan, M. Kouressy, M. Biasutti, C. Piani et al., Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa, Environmental Research Letters, vol.9, issue.10, pp.1748-9326, 2014.
DOI : 10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104006

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01317169

K. E. Taylor, R. J. Stouffer, G. A. Meehl, L. Van-ulft, W. Van-de-berg et al., An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design, The KNMI regional atmospheric climate model RACMO version 2.1. KNMI TR-302, Tech. rep., Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands, pp.485-498, 1175.
DOI : 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1

A. Voldoire, E. Sanchez-gomez, D. Salas-y-mélia, B. Decharme, C. Cassou et al., The CNRM-CM5.1 global climate model: description and basic evaluation, Climate Dynamics, vol.88, issue.23, pp.2091-2121, 2013.
DOI : 10.1175/BAMS-88-4-527

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00833024

X. Wang, Impacts of environmental change on rice ecosystems in China: development, optimization and application of ORCHIDEE-crop model, 2016.

Z. Wang, T. Ye, J. Wang, Z. Cheng, and P. Shi, Contribution of climatic and technological factors to crop yield: empirical evidence from late paddy rice in Hunan Province, China, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, vol.43, issue.12, pp.2019-2030, 2016.
DOI : 10.1007/s00477-013-0760-8

M. Watanabe, T. Suzuki, R. O-'ishi, Y. Komuro, S. Watanabe et al., Improved Climate Simulation by MIROC5: Mean States, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity, Improved Climate Simulation by MIROC5: Mean States, Variability , and Climate Sensitivity, pp.6312-6335, 2010.
DOI : 10.1175/2010JCLI3679.1

B. Parkes, Crop yields in Africa at +1

G. P. Weedon, G. Balsamo, N. Bellouin, S. Gomes, M. J. Best et al., The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set: WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data, Water Resources Research, vol.12, issue.D20, pp.7505-7514, 2014.
DOI : 10.1175/2011JHM1369.1

X. Wu, N. Vuichard, P. Ciais, N. Viovy, N. De-noblet-ducoudré et al., ORCHIDEE-CROP (v0), a new process-based agro-land surface model: model description and evaluation over Europe, Geosci. Model Dev, vol.9105194, pp.857-873, 2016.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01587289