Polynomial search and global modeling: Two algorithms for modeling chaos

Abstract : Global modeling aims to build mathematical models of concise description. Polynomial Model Search (PoMoS) and Global Modeling (GloMo) are two complementary algorithms (freely downloadable at the following address: http://www.cesbio.ups-tlse.fr/us/pomos_et_glomo.html) designed for the modeling of observed dynamical systems based on a small set of time series. Models considered in these algorithms are based on ordinary differential equations built on a polynomial formulation. More specifically, PoMoS aims at finding polynomial formulations from a given set of 1 to N time series, whereas GloMo is designed for single time series and aims to identify the parameters for a selected structure. GloMo also provides basic features to visualize integrated trajectories and to characterize their structure when it is simple enough: One allows for drawing the first return map for a chosen Poincare section in the reconstructed space; another one computes the Lyapunov exponent along the trajectory. In the present paper, global modeling from single time series is considered. A description of the algorithms is given and three examples are provided. The first example is based on the three variables of the Rossler attractor. The second one comes from an experimental analysis of the copper electrodissolution in phosphoric acid for which a less parsimonious global model was obtained in a previous study. The third example is an exploratory case and concerns the cycle of rainfed wheat under semiarid climatic conditions as observed through a vegetation index derived from a spatial sensor.