Characterization of homogeneous regions for regional peaks-over-threshold modeling of heavy precipitation
Abstract
In the French Mediterranean area where heavy precipitation events can
yield devastating consequences, it is essential to obtain reliable
estimates of the distribution of extreme precipitation at gauged and
ungauged locations. Under mild assumptions, extremes defined as
excesses over a high enough threshold can be modeled by the
generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. The shape parameter of the GP
which characterizes the behavior of extreme events is notoriously
difficult to estimate. In regional analysis, the sample variability
of the shape parameter estimate can be reduced by increasing the
sample size. This is achieved by assuming that sites in a so-called
homogeneous region are identically distributed apart from a scaling
factor and therefore share the same shape parameter. A major
difficulty is the proper definition of homogeneous regions. We build
upon a recently proposed approach, based on the probability weighted
moment (PWM) for the GP distribution, that can be cast into a regional
framework for a single homogeneous region. Our main contribution is
to extend its applicability to complex regions by characterizing each
site with the second PWM of the scaled excesses. We show on synthetic
data that this new characterization is successful at identifying the
homogeneous regions of the generative model and leads to accurate GP
parameter estimates. The proposed framework is applied to 332 daily
precipitation stations in the French Mediterranean area which are
splitted into homogeneous regions with shape parameter estimates
ranging from 0 to 0.3. The uncertainty of the estimators is evaluated
with an easy-to-implement spatial block bootstrap.
Origin : Files produced by the author(s)
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