M. Hulme, R. Doherty, T. Ngara, M. New, and D. Lister, African climate change: 1900-2100, Climate Research, vol.17, pp.145-168, 2001.
DOI : 10.3354/cr017145

S. Mulitza, Sahel megadroughts triggered by glacial slowdowns of Atlantic meridional overturning, Paleoceanography, vol.286, issue.4, p.4206, 2008.
DOI : 10.1029/2008PA001637

J. Stager, D. Ryves, B. Chase, and F. Pausata, Catastrophic Drought in the Afro-Asian Monsoon Region During Heinrich Event 1, Science, vol.22, issue.21-22, pp.1299-1302, 2011.
DOI : 10.1016/S0277-3791(03)00204-X

A. Itambi, T. Dobeneck, . Von, S. Mulitza, T. Bickert et al., Millennial-scale northwest African droughts related to Heinrich events and Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles: Evidence in marine sediments from offshore Senegal, Paleoceanography, vol.316, issue.2, p.1205, 2009.
DOI : 10.1029/2007PA001570

R. Tjallingii, Coherent high- and low-latitude control of the northwest African hydrological balance, Nature Geoscience, vol.431, issue.10, pp.670-675, 2008.
DOI : 10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.06.018

W. Broecker, G. Bond, M. Klas, E. Clark, and J. Mcmanus, Origin of the northern Atlantic's Heinrich events, Climate Dynamics, vol.6, issue.3-4, pp.265-273, 1992.
DOI : 10.1007/BF00193540

J. Alvarez-solas, A. Robinson, M. Montoya, and C. Ritz, Iceberg discharges of the last glacial period driven by oceanic circulation changes, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol.16, issue.6, pp.16350-16354, 2013.
DOI : 10.1038/364203a0

M. Kageyama and J. Mignot, Glacial climate sensitivity to different states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: results from the IPSL model, Climate of the Past, vol.5, issue.3, pp.551-570, 2009.
DOI : 10.5194/cp-5-551-2009

D. Swingedouw, Impact of Freshwater Release in the North Atlantic under Different Climate Conditions in an OAGCM, Journal of Climate, vol.22, issue.23, pp.6377-6403, 2009.
DOI : 10.1175/2009JCLI3028.1

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00763172

D. Swingedouw, Decadal fingerprints of freshwater discharge around Greenland in a multi-model ensemble, Climate Dynamics, vol.23, issue.23, pp.695-720, 2013.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-012-1479-9

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00871949

J. Church, Sea level change Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change eds Stocker TF, pp.1137-1216, 2013.

F. Straneo, Challenges to Understanding the Dynamic Response of Greenland's Marine Terminating Glaciers to Oceanic and Atmospheric Forcing, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol.94, issue.8, pp.1131-1144, 2013.
DOI : 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00100.1

E. Rignot, I. Fenty, Y. Xu, C. Cai, and C. Kemp, Undercutting of marine-terminating glaciers in West Greenland, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.40, issue.60, pp.5909-5917, 2015.
DOI : 10.1002/grl.50825

F. Gillet-chaulet, Greenland ice sheet contribution to sea-level rise from a new-generation ice-sheet model, The Cryosphere, vol.6, issue.6, pp.1561-1576, 2012.
DOI : 10.5194/tc-6-1561-2012

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00762945

F. Paolo, H. Fricker, and L. Padman, Volume loss from Antarctic ice shelves is accelerating, Science, vol.31, issue.2-3, pp.327-331, 2015.
DOI : 10.1016/j.rse.2006.12.020

J. Mouginot, Fast retreat of Zachariae Isstrom, northeast Greenland, Science, vol.120, issue.5763, pp.1357-1361, 2015.
DOI : 10.1126/science.1121381

J. Alvarez-solas and G. Ramstein, On the triggering mechanism of Heinrich events, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol.7, issue.8, pp.1359-1360, 2011.
DOI : 10.1038/ngeo1188

N. Gomez, L. Gregoire, J. Mitrovica, and A. Payne, Laurentide-Cordilleran Ice Sheet saddle collapse as a contribution to meltwater pulse 1A, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.502, issue.10, pp.3954-3962, 2015.
DOI : 10.1029/PA005i006p01009

URL : http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/85255/8/Gomez_et_al-2015-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf

J. Dufresne, Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5, Climate Dynamics, vol.23, issue.13, pp.2123-2165, 2013.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00794170

S. Manabe and R. Stouffer, Two Stable Equilibria of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model, Journal of Climate, vol.1, issue.9, pp.841-866, 1988.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(1988)001<0841:TSEOAC>2.0.CO;2

M. Vellinga, R. Wood, and J. Gregory, Processes Governing the Recovery of a Perturbed Thermohaline Circulation in HadCM3, Journal of Climate, vol.15, issue.7, pp.764-780, 2001.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0764:PGTROA>2.0.CO;2

R. Stouffer, J. Yin, and J. Gregory, Investigating the Causes of the Response of the Thermohaline Circulation to Past and Future Climate Changes, Journal of Climate, vol.19, issue.8, pp.1365-1387, 2006.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI3689.1

M. Kageyama, Climatic impacts of fresh water hosing under Last Glacial Maximum conditions: a multi-model study, Climate of the Past, vol.9, issue.2, pp.935-953, 2013.
DOI : 10.5194/cp-9-935-2013

R. Jackson, Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM, Climate Dynamics, vol.22, issue.3, pp.1-18, 2015.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-015-2540-2

D. Swingedouw, P. Braconnot, and O. Marti, Sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to the melting from northern glaciers in climate change experiments, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.16, issue.2, p.7711, 2006.
DOI : 10.1029/2006GL025765

L. Peterson, G. Haug, K. Hughen, and U. Röhl, Rapid Changes in the Hydrologic Cycle of the Tropical Atlantic During the Last Glacial, Science, vol.290, issue.5498, pp.1947-1951, 2007.
DOI : 10.1126/science.290.5498.1947

G. Leduc, Moisture transport across Central America as a positive feedback on abrupt climatic changes, Nature, vol.14, issue.7130, pp.908-911, 2007.
DOI : 10.1038/nature05578

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01458326

J. Chiang and C. Bitz, Influence of high latitude ice cover on the marine Intertropical Convergence Zone, Climate Dynamics, vol.13, issue.5, p.477, 2005.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-005-0040-5

J. Arbuszewski, P. Cléroux, C. Bradtmiller, L. Mix, and A. , Meridional shifts of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone since the Last Glacial Maximum, Nature Geoscience, vol.307, issue.11, pp.959-962, 2013.
DOI : 10.1038/ngeo1961

E. Niedermeyer, Extratropical forcing of Sahel aridity during Heinrich stadials, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.309, issue.20, p.20707, 2009.
DOI : 10.1029/2009GL039687

Y. Liu, J. Chiang, C. Chou, and C. Patricola, Atmospheric teleconnection mechanisms of extratropical North Atlantic SST influence on Sahel rainfall, Climate Dynamics, vol.21, issue.12, pp.2797-2811, 2014.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-014-2094-8

A. Ickowicz, Crop-livestock production systems in the Sahel -Increasing resilience for adaptation to climate change and preserving food security. Building Resilience for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agriculture Sector (Food and Agric Org, pp.261-294, 2012.

J. Christensen, Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, p.14, 2013.

G. Weedon, The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set: WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data, Water Resources Research, vol.12, issue.D20, pp.7505-7514, 2014.
DOI : 10.1002/2014WR015638

URL : http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014WR015638/pdf

P. Oettli, B. Sultan, C. Baron, and M. Vrac, Are regional climate models relevant for crop yield prediction in West Africa?, Environmental Research Letters, vol.6, issue.1, p.14008, 2011.
DOI : 10.1088/1748-9326/6/1/014008

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00755374

A. Colette, R. Vautard, and M. Vrac, Regional climate downscaling with prior statistical correction of the global climate forcing, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.23, issue.3, p.13707, 2012.
DOI : 10.3354/cr00696

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ineris-00961787

M. Vrac, Dynamical and statistical downscaling of the French Mediterranean climate: uncertainty assessment, Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, vol.12, issue.9, pp.2769-2784, 2012.
DOI : 10.5194/nhess-12-2769-2012

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01111697

N. Vigaud, M. Vrac, and Y. Caballero, Probabilistic downscaling of GCM scenarios over southern India, International Journal of Climatology, vol.62, issue.3, pp.1248-1263, 2013.
DOI : 10.1002/joc.3509

B. Sultan, Assessing climate change impacts on sorghum and millet yields in the Sudanian and Sahelian savannas of West Africa, Environmental Research Letters, vol.8, issue.1, p.14040, 2013.
DOI : 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014040

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00857331

S. Kc and W. Lutz, The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100, Global Environmental Change, vol.42, pp.181-192, 2014.
DOI : 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.004

O. Neill and B. , A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of shared socioeconomic pathways, Clim Change, vol.122, pp.387-400, 2014.

J. Juana, Z. Kahaka, and F. Okurut, Farmers??? Perceptions and Adaptations to Climate Change in Sub-Sahara Africa: A Synthesis of Empirical Studies and Implications for Public Policy in African Agriculture, Journal of Agricultural Science, vol.5, issue.4, pp.121-135, 2013.
DOI : 10.5539/jas.v5n4p121

B. Neumann, A. Vafeidis, J. Zimmermann, and R. Nicholls, Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment, PLOS ONE, vol.48, issue.3, p.118571, 2015.
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0118571.s004

URL : http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0118571

A. Afolayan and I. Adelekan, The role of climatic variations on migration and human health in Africa, The Environmentalist, vol.18, issue.4, pp.213-218, 1999.
DOI : 10.1023/A:1006581002775

N. Pontee, Defining coastal squeeze: A discussion, Ocean & Coastal Management, vol.84, pp.204-207, 2013.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2013.07.010

R. Mcleman and L. Hunter, Migration in the context of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change: insights from analogues, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, vol.96, issue.3, pp.450-461, 2010.
DOI : 10.1002/wcc.51

J. Bamber, M. Van-den-broeke, J. Ettema, J. Lenaerts, and E. Rignot, Recent large increases in freshwater fluxes from Greenland into the North Atlantic, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.326, issue.5955, p.19501, 2012.
DOI : 10.1126/science.1178176

S. Rahmstorf, Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation, Nature Climate Change, vol.5, issue.5, pp.475-480, 2015.
DOI : 10.1029/2008GL035635

URL : http://eprints.ucm.es/32657/1/robinson10postprint.pdf

P. Valdes, Built for stability, Nature Geoscience, vol.23, issue.7, pp.414-416, 2011.
DOI : 10.1038/ngeo1200

W. Liu, Z. Liu, and E. Brady, Why is the AMOC Monostable in Coupled General Circulation Models?, Journal of Climate, vol.27, issue.6, pp.2427-2443, 2014.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00264.1

W. Liu, S. Xie, Z. Liu, and J. Zhu, Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate, Science Advances, vol.22, issue.1, p.1601666, 2017.
DOI : 10.1175/2007MWR1978.1

J. Deshayes, Oceanic hindcast simulations at high resolution suggest that the Atlantic MOC is bistable, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.29, issue.12, pp.3069-3073, 2013.
DOI : 10.1029/2012GL053763

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00872044

M. Hofmann and S. Rahmstorf, On the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol.104, issue.6, pp.20584-20589, 2009.
DOI : 10.1073/pnas.0705414105

S. Weber, The modern and glacial overturning circulation in the Atlantic ocean in PMIP coupled model simulations, Climate of the Past Discussions, vol.2, issue.5, pp.923-949, 2006.
DOI : 10.5194/cpd-2-923-2006

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298062

G. Sgubin, D. Swingedouw, S. Drijfhout, Y. Mary, and A. Bennabi, Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models, Nature Communications, vol.32, p.14375, 2017.
DOI : 10.1038/ncomms14375

P. Spence, O. Saenko, W. Sijp, and M. England, North Atlantic Climate Response to Lake Agassiz Drainage at Coarse and Ocean Eddy-Permitting Resolutions, Journal of Climate, vol.26, issue.8, pp.2651-2667, 2013.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00683.1

URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=

W. Weijer, M. Maltrud, M. Hecht, H. Dijkstra, and M. Kliphuis, Response of the Atlantic Ocean circulation to Greenland Ice Sheet melting in a strongly-eddying ocean model, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.3, issue.5955, p.9606, 2012.
DOI : 10.1029/2009GL040222

B. Noël, A tipping point in refreezing accelerates mass loss of Greenland???s glaciers and ice caps, Nature Communications, vol.07713, p.14730, 2017.
DOI : 10.1002/sim.1545

M. Déqué, Frequency of precipitation and temperature extremes over France in an anthropogenic scenario: Model results and statistical correction according to observed values, Global and Planetary Change, vol.57, issue.1-2, pp.16-26, 2007.
DOI : 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.11.030

L. Gudmundsson, J. Bremnes, J. Haugen, and T. Engen-skaugen, Technical Note: Downscaling RCM precipitation to the station scale using statistical transformations &ndash; a comparison of methods, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol.16, issue.9, pp.3383-3390, 2012.
DOI : 10.5194/hess-16-3383-2012

P. Michelangeli, M. Vrac, and H. Loukos, Probabilistic downscaling approaches: Application to wind cumulative distribution functions, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.62, issue.D12, p.11708, 2009.
DOI : 10.1029/2009GL038401

H. Panofsky and G. Brier, Some Applications of Statistics to Meteorology (Pennsylvania State Univ, 1958.

H. Blaney and W. Criddle, Determining water requirements for settling water disputes, Nat Resour J, vol.4, pp.29-41, 1965.

A. Food and . Organization, Water Harvesting 2. Water and soil requirements, 2016.